JoSAA 2026 Closing Rank Analysis: Round 1 and Round 2 Trends to Predict Round 3 Ranks

JoSAA 2026 Round 3 seat allotment arrives on July 6, 2026, and 2025 data shows closing ranks relax by 15 to 25 percent from Round 1 to Round 3 at top NITs while top IIT CSE branches show near-zero movement across all rounds.

With JoSAA 2026 Round 1 seat allotment out on June 13 and Round 2 scheduled for June 30, students with ranks near the closing boundary are watching every round closely. Based on 2024 and 2025 round-wise data from josaa.nic.in, this analysis shows the movement pattern and offers expected Round 3 closing ranks for popular IIT and NIT branches.

• JoSAA 2026 has five rounds: Round 3 on July 6 and the final Round 5 on July 16, 2026.
• Top IIT CSE closing ranks (IIT Bombay, IIT Delhi) show minimal round-wise movement with demand consistently exceeding supply from Round 1 itself.
• NIT CSE closing ranks (OS, Open category) typically relax by 200 to 600 ranks from Round 1 to Round 3, based on 2025 trends.
• Students on Float keep their allotted seat and stay eligible for upgrades in subsequent rounds.
• Round 3 closing ranks are the key benchmark before the Round 4 IIT withdrawal deadline on July 14, 2026.

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How Closing Ranks Move Across JoSAA Rounds

Each JoSAA round allots seats based on submitted preferences and available vacancies. After every round, students who received a seat choose to Freeze (accept and stop), Float (accept and seek upgrade), or Surrender (withdraw). When a student Floats and gets upgraded in the next round, the earlier seat returns to the pool, causing closing ranks to relax. The last rank allotted in each subsequent round gets progressively higher and more accessible.

Top IIT branches with near-zero vacancies show almost no movement across rounds. Newer IITs and most NIT branches, where a meaningful share of floated students upgrade, show 15 to 25 percent relaxation by Round 3. Round 3 captures roughly 70 to 80 percent of the total round-wise rank journey, with smaller movement in Rounds 4 and 5.

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IIT Closing Rank: Round 1 to Round 3 Trends

The table shows 2025 Round 1 closing ranks alongside estimated Round 2 and Round 3 figures derived from the known Round 1 to final round movement (JEE Advanced All India Rank, Open category). The 2026 Round 3 column is expected based on trend analysis and is not confirmed official data.

For old IITs, closing ranks rise by only 2 to 5 percent between Round 1 and Round 3. For newer IITs the movement reaches 10 to 15 percent. If your JEE Advanced rank is within 10 percent of the Round 1 closing rank at a newer IIT, Round 3 may bring that choice within reach.

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NIT Closing Rank: Round 1 to Round 3 Trends

NIT closing ranks use JEE Main Common Rank List. The table covers CSE branches under Other State (OS) quota for Open category, based on 2025 data. Round 2 and Round 3 figures for 2025 are estimates derived from the known Round 1 to final round movement. The 2026 Round 3 column shows expected figures and is not confirmed official data.

For top NITs, closing ranks move by 200 to 400 ranks between Round 1 and Round 3 in the Open category OS quota. Expect roughly 12 to 20 percent loosening from Round 1 to Round 3 for NIT CSE branches — a pattern that has held across 2023, 2024 and 2025.

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How to Predict Round 3 Closing Ranks from Round 1 and Round 2 Data

A practical method is the Round Drift approach: once Round 2 data is available, multiply the Round 1 to Round 2 gap by 1.2 to 1.5 and add it to the Round 2 closing rank.

• NIT Trichy CSE (OS, Open): Round 1 closing rank 1,100, Round 2 closing rank 1,245 (gap = 145 ranks)
• Estimated Round 3: 1,245 + (145 x 1.2) = approximately 1,419
• This aligns closely with the 2025 estimated Round 3 closing rank of 1,375.

Apply the same formula to 2026 Round 2 data once published on June 30, 2026. Two signals further refine the estimate:

• Float rate: If most students in Round 2 chose Float rather than Freeze, more seats free up in Round 3, pushing closing ranks higher.
• Seat matrix changes: If JoSAA added or removed seats between rounds, the closing rank moves accordingly. Verify the official seat matrix at josaa.nic.in before finalising any estimate.

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Category-wise Closing Rank Pattern in JoSAA 2026

Category-wise ranks follow the same round-wise relaxation pattern but at different absolute levels. OBC-NCL, SC, and ST closing ranks represent category ranks, not the Common Rank List, and are not directly comparable to Open category numbers.

If your category rank is within 15 to 20 percent of the Round 1 closing rank for a target branch, staying on Float through Round 3 is worth it. SC and ST students at institutes with very few reserved seats should check the specific branch seat matrix at josaa.nic.in before choosing Float.